FINNs SENIOR CIRCUIT DEAD PRESIDENT POSITION IX- Chicago Cubs To Win by 4+ Runs (+300)
1% prop rating
Starting Pitching: List Puk and Taillon
Home Plate Umpire: Alex MacKay will be working his 30th career home plate assignment. This millennial addition to the MLB umpire network has the highest K percentage among umpires with more than 25 career home plate assignments. His K% checks in at 24.2 percent. His Kzone is comparable to that of Tripp Gibson, Will Little, Ryan Blakney, and others. MacKay's RPG average is at the top of the chart of young umpires, what I label Millennials, and is in the same folder as veterans such as Bill Miller, Cory Blaser, and Doug Eddings. MacKay's Walk Rate ranks in the Top 25 of active umpires with more than 25 home plate assignments and he offers a near 10 percent increase in strikes called than pitchers career averages on Game Night.
MacKay's game-night peripherals, e.g. the pitcher's SLG percentage when he is behind the dish, are nearly 10 percent better than worst in terms of SLG percentage.
MacKay could be classified as an asset to both pitchers tonight but he easily makes James Taillon a strikeout per 4 innings better than his career average and with the weather conditions as they are pushing the Cubs to be a 2:1 home favorite or more which in turn makes a play on the Cubs a value-based investment.
Venue: Wrigley Field in Chicago, IL
Weather: Lake Michigan winds are cool with periods of rain, turning breezy in the afternoon. The possibility of variable rain showers lingers with a consistent NE breeze at 10-15 mph. Wind gusts reaching 20 mph will occur. The afternoon probability of minimal precipitation is 70 percent.
The Wrigley Field evening forecast is to expect first-pitch temps for tonight's game to be in the neighborhood of 50 degrees with a slight chance of brief showers while a breeze blowing in from the centerfield wall between 10-20 mph. While the evening temps figure to be in the upper-40s throughout the game the air will be thick with humidity in the mid-80 percent range.
A 5-1 homestand, fueled by an offense averaging more than six runs per game has given the Northsiders in Chicago hope for a return to relevance on the Major League Baseball circuit.
The Cubs introduced Craig Counsell as their 56th manager in November, one week after they lured him away from the Milwaukee Brewers. I don't believe it took a record contract to convince Council to take the Chicago gig. =He became the majors’ highest-paid manager with a five-year deal worth more than $40 million.
Former Chicago Cubs manager Lou Piniella, who was a rookie of the year in the Kansas City Royals first season after watching Charlie Finley exit Kansas City and move his troupe to Oakland, leaving the KC faithful exhausted. Take it from someone who knows just how good that final Kansas City Athletics team was despite losing almost 100 games. Joe Rudy, Reggie Jackson, Catfish Hunter, Sal Bando, and the list goes on and on. The team was a David waiting to take its place as a Goliath which is exactly what Finley's mustachioed roster accomplished.
Piniella once said after retiring from coaching: “Unless you’re there [Wrigley Field in Chicago as the Skipper of the Cubs] and you do it … it’s different than what you would think going in. You know, you win three or four games in a row and you’re going to win the pennant. You lose three or four games in a row and the season is over. It isn’t an easy place to manage.”
Counsell managed a Milwaukee team for nine years - but did so in a climate-controlled environment of the ballpark formerly known as Miller Park. Craig Breslow, who recruited James Taillon to Chicago, and is currently the Chief Baseball Officer of the Boston Red Sox, did a fantastic job fixing the Cubs' pitching issues, as much as he could in the time he was with the Cubs.
In January 2019, the Chicago Cubs hired Breslow as their Director of Strategic Initiatives for Baseball Operations, joining Theo Epstein in the team's front office.[128] In that position, he was to "help to evaluate and implement data-based processes throughout all facets of Baseball Operations" and "support the organization's pitching infrastructure in Player Development and the major leagues.
On October 25, 2023, the Boston Red Sox hired Breslow as their Chief Baseball Officer, replacing Chaim Bloom. Breslow is charged with the decision-making of players, coaches, and personnel.
After impressing with the New York Yankees, Taillon's first season in Chicago didn't go as planned. His 4.84 ERA and 4.61 FIP were the worst marks of his seven-year big league career.
Breslow was nicknamed the "smartest man in baseball"
During the 2016 offseason, Breslow began experimenting with the Rapsodo Baseball system to analyze the mechanics and spin rate on his pitches. He hoped to improve the movement on his pitches and revive his career.
Council is not all in on the cult practices of the Rapsodo system but the Chicago pitching staff has been initiated and more than the improved pitching the Cubs lineup, at the plate, is one of the smartest and most patient in the league.
A day or three and a week ago the Cubs led the majors in on-base percentage (.363) and ranking fifth in OPS (.793). Scoring runs is important with a team that is short on bullpen depth and recently lost the rotations No. #1 to injury, Justin Steele.
The Cubs, offensively, have been manipulated and trained to thrive in difficult weather conditions. It is a belief, or it was a confidence by the front office, that winning in April sets the Cubs up for success in October.
Hitting coach Dustin Kelly said the Cubs’ formula, plate approach, is similar to last year’s, with most of the same lineup back.
“We have enough power and slug, but it’s not something we’re going to rely on,” Kelly said. “But we have guys that are going to manage at-bats one through nine, and that’s what we’ve seen. Guys willing to take their walks, spoiling pitches with two strikes, and forcing pitchers to get back in the zone and make some mistakes."
“This is a tough place to hit in April, but we’ve done a really good job of getting on base and creating traffic, so a couple of those doubles or balls that sneak by turn into some extra runs.”
The messages varied depending on the organization but no club impressed James Tallion like the Cubbies did the winter before last. The team sold Tallion on the organizational vision. Cubs vice president of pitching Craig Breslow flew out to New York early in the free agency period to meet Taillon. They planned for a half-hour meeting, but it quickly turned into a two-hour session that went deep into the math of pitching.
Breslow sent Taillon customized videos that showcased Wrigley Field, the history of the franchise, the city of Chicago, and the fans that pack the iconic stadium.
“It was definitely genuine,” Taillon said. “It felt like a great fit.”
Taillon would watch the videos daily, keeping the idea of donning the blue pinstripes in historic Wrigley Field fresh in his mind. He did his research, too. He spoke with former Yankee teammates Anthony Rizzo and Scott Effross and former Pirates teammate Trevor Williams about the Cubs and setup in Chicago.
Anthony Rizzo, Scott Effross, and former Pirates teammate Trevor Williams, as members of other teams essentially told Taillon that ... “Dude, if you have the opportunity to play there [Wrigley Field] , you really have to take it,’” Taillon told the Tribune " Effross and Trevor Williams would text me and be like, ‘Are you a Cub yet? It’s gonna be such a great fit.’”
With a year of what it takes to be a pitcher off Lake Michigan under his belt and with the 2024 team, a group that is essentially the same as the 2023 troupe. Taillon is ready to tackle being the best he can be for his teammates, the coaching staff, new skipper Craig Council, and the Cubs crazed faithful.
When Justin Steele was pushed to the IL with a hamstring injury the preparation and patience that the Chicago coaching staff has had with Taillon has been dead-solid-perfect.
The plan, after a Spring Training injury (lower back), was not to have Taillon join the rotation until his Velo was back to last year's average or better.
Welcome better.
Taillon's average fastball was 94 MPH last season, according to Baseball Savant.
In the right-handers' second rehab assignment, in the last week, Taillon was reaching 95 on the stadium radar gun.
The Marlins will need a career performance from today's starter A.J. Puk if they are going to take down the Cubs, in Wrigley, with the conditions as they are. Getting a career-like performance from a pitcher who can't command his car to be steered in the correct direction, let alone a cowhide-covered Hobby Lobby art room mangling of floor trash to find home plate.
Puk struggled in his season debut against the Pirates throwing 68 pitches that resulted in just two outs and four earned runs with one strikeout against six walks.
The Marlins southpaw scuffled in his second start against a strikeout-prone Angels group working four innings of a 10-4 loss in Miami to Mike Trout and his teammates. Puk allowed five hits, and four runs striking out five but was still not in command walking three. It was a better performance than his first start, kind of, by the hair of his chinny-chin-chin.
Puk threw 88 pitches vs the Halos, recorded 12 outs that included the three walks, and left the game with an ERA of 9.00 after two turns.
There is a high likelihood that Puk finds himself in the bullpen after today's gig against the Cubs lineup.
The Fish staff, pitching staff, has been lost in the first 20-something games of the 2024 campaign. Miami leads the Majors with the most walks (21) allowed and ranks toward the bottom of baseball in, yes, the most overrated stat in all of sports, ERA. Puk owns a 5.91 ERA after his third start of the season at New Yankee Stadium found him tossing 4.2 innings of four-hit and two-run baseball. Puk struck out two Yankee sticks in that 4.2 innings of work but he walked five (5).
Puk's start at Yankee Stadium, a Tuesday game against Judge and Company was managed by home plate umpire Cory Blaser. Let it be known that when a pitcher walks five hitters when facing less than 24 batters it is more than a bad day, more than an outlier, and more than one more start or a between-games side session can repair.
Moving Puk into the rotation, plus the staff’s short starts (4 13 innings on average), have taken a toll on the Fish, particularly, the bullpen. Miami already has cycled through righties Declan Cronin (optioned to Triple-A Jacksonville), Vladimir Gutierrez (designated for assignment), and Burch Smith (acquired from Tampa Bay) as well as lefty Kent Emanuel (contract selected from Jacksonville).
Dealing left-hander Steven Okert to the Twins for Nick Gordon has also placed a burden on fellow southpaws Tanner Scott and Andrew Nardi.
After losing the first seven games of the season the media began to play hardball with the Fish's Skip, Schumaker.
“The season, I know, it feels long already in that clubhouse because it's seven games and no wins, but it is really early,” Schumaker told the press in the postgame media session following their season's seventh straight loss to begin the season. “However, these games do count. Playoff teams get in by one or two games every year. And so we've got to figure it out if we want to get to where we want to get to."
The Cubs (11-7) just completed a forever road trip, a nine-game West Coast journey in which they won despite key injuries and a pair of historic bullpen meltdowns. The Cubs returned home with a winning trip (5-4 mark) despite the hurdles.
Chicago is rewarded with a weekend series against a Marlins team that can't pitch or hit.
Miami (4-15), who was a part of the 2023 postseason bracket is playing without the team's two best pitchers, two of the best pitchers in the league let alone Miami's very own. The active roster began the season losing nine consecutive games and checking into Wrigley with a minus-34 run differential. Lest I forget to mention the club sits at the bottom of the NL East. Believe it or not, there is a team in the league with a record that is less than Miami's 4-15, that is the Chicago White Sox who are a half-game behind the Fish with a 3-15 overall record.
As hard as I am being, in this game night op-ed, the Fish and the team's .601 OPS is the second least effective batting variable in all of baseball, save that of the White Sox.
Luis Arráez, who won the batting title last year, is the most dangerous bat on the current Miami roster, and his danger comes in the way of singles. If any team gets singled to death tonight it will not be the Cubs.
Miami owns a 4.84 team ERA, it is the fourth-worst in MLB, and the current ace of the pitching staff is Ryan Weathers, who is carrying a 2.70 ERA after four starts. The bullpen has been a complete cluster-fuster and enters tonight's matchup with a 5.87 ERA.
The Cubs are riding the momentum of a 5-4 road trip. This is not an exaggeration, The 5-4 trek and mark as a visitor two time zones away from home following a 5-1 season-opening home stand have the group of Cubbies playing with a swagger. Chicago is set up to sweep the weekend series and it begins with a win tonight in a pitching, hitting, and territorial advantage, significant advantages, of the Chicago Cubs.
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Let's make the case for the Cubs tonight without taking a chunk of the Miami Marlins backside. A second look at my notes makes it impossible to offer a favorable lean to Miami's chances of winning this weekend's series at Wrigley.
Major League Baseball is roughly 19th of the way through the 2024 campaign. With 89ths remaining on the slate, it is not possible to neglect to mention, state, remind and admit … the Marlins can officially put an asterisk by their name in the official MLB Standings … the astricks being a team that represents a specific fact, figure or obscurity.
The asterisks I have placed by the Miami Marlins, look like this *Miami Marlins
* Eliminated from qualifying for the 2024 postseason
Note that I didn't manipulate the situation for the pleasure of allowing myself to mention … Miami has a 0.01 percent chance of being a postseason team in October.
Yes, mathematically, there is time, the necessary number of games remaining, to manage a journey to the promised land and earn a spot in the expanded playoff bracket.
No … it isn't anything I believe will or can happen and I recommend you fall in line with this prognostication.
You see the Fish are what their record says they are.
Any chance the Marlins had of matching their 2023 success came in an anchor in the starting rotation and quality depth in the pen.
The Marlins have neither.
The club manager Skip Schumaker has already all but said he will not be with the team next season.
FINNs SENIOR CIRCUIT DEAD PRESIDENT POSITION IX- Chicago Cubs To Win by 4+ Runs (+300)
1% prop rating
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As noted in the introduction of this Dead President Report coversheet above;
The complete outline of Tony Finn's DPR positions for tonight's game is below
Once you receive this Dead President Cover Page (this first page and outline of the entire report) you may well find time isn't your friend – use the outline below - a user-friendly list of Tony Finn's DPR positions. The complete and detailed analysis for each of these official Dead President Report entries can take as little as 5 minutes or as much as 15 minutes to be completely transferredforwarded and land in your email inbox – Good luck tonight, to both, to all of us, with this Dead President Report.
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1. FINNs SENIOR CIRCUIT DEAD PRESIDENT POSITION I – Chicago Cubs Team Total Over 4.5 (+115) | List Puk and Taillon
4% game rating
2. FINNs SENIOR CIRCUIT DEAD PRESIDENT POSITION II- Chicago Cubs 1st 5 Run Line -0.5 (-115)
2% game rating
3. FINNs SENIOR CIRCUIT DEAD PRESIDENT POSITION III- Chicago Cubs -1.5 runs (+120)
2% game rating
4. FINNs SENIOR CIRCUIT DEAD PRESIDENT POSITION IV - Chicago Cubs Alternate RL -2.5 runs (+187)
1% game rating
5. FINNs SENIOR CIRCUIT DEAD PRESIDENT POSITION V - Chicago Cubs Alternate RL -3.5 runs (+281)
1% game rating
6. FINNs SENIOR CIRCUIT DEAD PRESIDENT POSITION VI - Chicago Cubs to Score First and Win (+135)
2% prop rating
7. FINNs SENIOR CIRCUIT DEAD PRESIDENT POSITION VII - Chicago Cubs Nick Madrigal RBI Over 0.5 (+245)
Player must have at least one official at-bat
1% prop rating
8. FINNs SENIOR CIRCUIT DEAD PRESIDENT POSITION VIII - James Taillon Strikeouts Thrown Over 4.5 (+100)
1% prop rating
9. FINNs SENIOR CIRCUIT DEAD PRESIDENT POSITION IX- Chicago Cubs To Win by 4+ Runs (+300)
1% prop rating
10. FINNs SENIOR CIRCUIT DEAD PRESIDENT POSITION X - Finn's DraftKings Game Parlays 1st 5 Innings MoneyLine | First 5 = Tie Money Line Winner Chicago Cubs | +750
1st Leg: First 5 = Tie
2nd Leg: Money Line Winner Chicago Cubs
+750 for every 1% 1 unit invested
0.5% parlay rating
11. FINNs SENIOR CIRCUIT DEAD PRESIDENT POSITION XI - Finn's Draftkings 4-Pick SGP:
1st Leg: Chicago Cubs ML
2nd Leg: Christopher Morel To Get a Hit
3rd Leg: Tallion Strikeouts Thrown 5+
4th Leg: Hoerner Total Bases 2+
1% parlay rating