FINNs AMERICAN LEAGUE TOP PLAYER PROP I - Anthony Volpe Total Bases Over 1.5 (+130) List Blanco and Stroman
2% prop rating
Starting Pitchers: List Stroman and Blanco
Home Plate Umpire: Derek Thomas is a hitter-friendly MLB newbie. Young Millennial Thomas uses the league-recommended strike zone and takes it to a smaller-than-small level. His small sample size of only 25 home plate assignments is hard to discount due to his small zone and power numbers against the starting pitchers and bullpens in the games he manages home plate.
Venue: New Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, NY
Weather: The forecast for the Bronx in the later stages of Thursday afternoon calls for first-pitch temps to be in the low-70s with no precip expected. A 5-10 mph wind blows in from left-centerfield.
The high altitude of Mexico City didn’t create any command issues with Houston right-hander Ronel Blanco. The Houston starter gave up two runs on five hits while walking two and striking out eight in just short of six innings two starts back. Blanco's 2.09 ERA is smoke and mirrors. Blanco has had a great start to the season, including a no-hitter in his debut and quality starts in five of his six starts this season.
Blanco has been fortuitous, the beneficiary of good luck. His FIP is 3.78 and his xFIP is 4.64 offers ample evidence of negative regression being due. This is especially true with Thomas calling balls and strikes today behind the dish nearly four walks per nine innings will come into play.
Blanco gave up a pair of first-inning runs against the Rangers following his no-hitter and a six-inning and no runs allowed vs the Rangers in mid-April. In his third start, his second straight against the Rangers, the Houston righty allowed the first runs of this season and the start of what should find Blanco coming back to his career stats and slash line.
Blanco's start to the season has been remarkable, however, the free passes have been a bit of an issue. Back-to-back two-out walks set up the two-run first inning in Saturday's contest against the Rangers. Including his no-no Blanco had allowed nine walks across his three starts and since that performance at Minute Maid, the righty has allowed seven walks against 20 K's and the no-hit performance in which he had a 12:8 ground-by-to-flyball ratio has flipped.
Stroman's Velo has been down across all pitch types in the first 30 games of the season. The Yankees righthander has a smallish CSW and ill-forturne is overdue for the veteran soft-tosser. Stroman relies on strike-throwing and having a number of pitches – however, his profile is a slippery slope. Stroman has no idea how to spell fundamentals and he doesn't know how to utilize them in his pitch mix either.
Stroman navigated 5 1/3 innings while limiting the A’s to three runs and seven hits but his command was spotty in arguably this best start of the season. Stroman is volatile and is one of the veteran pitchers that still allows opposing dugouts and lineup to get under his skin. He is just as capable of walking three straight and allowing a dinger to clear the bases as much as he is to throw a quality start.
Anthony Volpe Total Bases Over 1.5 (+130) List Blanco and Stroman