NFC GAME OF THE WK *7-1 FOOTBALL RUN*

Today’s Free Picks

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
NFL	(263) Chicago Bears at (264) Detroit Lions	1:00pm EDT - Sep 14/2025

The PLAY: Detroit Lions -5.5 (-110)

The GoldSheet enters Thursday's action with a 7-1 record with their September football. Here's their take on the Bears/Lions game:

Detroit has won five of the last six meetings, but the Bears are 3-1 against the spread over the last two years. Jared Goff looked lost against the Packers at Lambeau on Sunday, but he should look a little better in the friendly conditions at Ford Field. Dating back to his days with the Rams, Goff-led teams are 41-18-1 against the spread in indoor games since 2019. We have some concerns about Goff and the Lions' offense as they now face their former offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, who will be on the opposite sideline. But we're not overly concerned about Detroit's defense in this matchup. The Lions' defense held Chicago to 17 and 20 points in last year's meetings. What we saw from the Bears on Monday night against the Vikings looked a lot like what we saw from the Bears last season: Caleb Williams looked great during the "scripted" portion of the game, but couldn't move the ball once they got past that point. The Bears went 61 yards on ten plays, capped off by a nine-yard touchdown run from Williams to open the game. That series featured several of Coach Johnson's scripted plays that Chicago worked on in practice last week. Once that script ran out and Williams was forced to work outside his comfort zone, we saw a lot of the same issues that plagued the Bears last year. 
Play Detroit.

 

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
NFL	(251) New England Patriots at (252) Miami Dolphins	1:00pm EDT - Sep 14/2025

The PLAY: Total Over 44.0 (-112)

We were 7-1 with last week's football plays, 3-0 with college football and 4-1 with NFL. In fact, we narrowly missed out on the 8-0 sweep, as Baltimore was up double-digits in the closing minutes but couldn't hang on. Either way, we're happy with the 7-1 card and we're ready for another profitable week. Here, we'll take a look at the total from the Sunday afternoon matchup between the Dolphins and the Patriots. 

Miami is 8-1 straight-up, 9-0 against the spread in the last nine meetings between these AFC East foes. Over the last six meetings, the Patriots' offense has averaged just 265.7 yards per game against the Dolphins' defense and New England did not crack the 300-yard mark in any of those six games. New England closed as an underdog in every game last season, so the Patriots' Week 1 game vs Las Vegas was their first time favored in a game since the 2023-24 season. We didn't have a favorable outlook on either team entering this season, so we're not shocked by either team's disappointing Week 1 result. We are expecting to see some more points in this one, however. 

The total for this AFC East clash opened at 44 points, and you have to go back to the 2023-24 playoffs in the frigid conditions in Kansas City to find the last time the Dolphins were involved in a game with a total below 44 points with Tua Tagovailoa as the starting quarterback. Tagovailoa had arguably his best game in the NFL against this Patriots defense last season, going 29-of-40 for 317 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions. Expect both offenses to throw the kitchen sink at this one in hopes of avoiding an 0-2 start. 
Play the Over.

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
CFB	(177) New Mexico State at (178) Louisiana Tech	7:30pm EDT - Sep 13/2025

The PLAY: Louisiana Tech -10.0 (-108)

The Aggies came through in a big way last week, as we had a large play on them and they won outright as underdogs. This is a far more difficult matchup though. New Mexico State has earned a pair of upsets over the last two years, including a 33-30 win in overtime last season as a 12-point ‘dog. The Bulldogs are an improved team this year though and last year's OT loss will provide them with added motivation, as will last week's loss against LSU. New Mexico State has struggled on offense and is going to have trouble scoring against an LA Tech team which pitched a shutout in its only home game. Play on La Tech

Bonus: Three of the last four meetings have stayed under the total, and the lone over required double overtime to clear the number. New Mexico State's first two games have stayed under the total by 31.5 and 17 points respectively. Louisiana Tech's first two games have stayed under the total by 27.5 and 19.5 points respectively. Play on the under. 

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
CFB	(179) Massachusetts at (180) Iowa	7:30pm EDT - Sep 13/2025

The PLAY: Total Over 42.5 (-110)

The Hawkeyes made us look smart last week. We elected to play the over for the first half in their game vs. Iowa State. We were a winner, as the first half did finish above the total. However, the scoring dried up in the second half and the final score stayed under for the full game total. We don't anticipate that being an issue in this one. 

Kirk Ferentz, we know it goes against everything you preach, but you need to let Mark Gronowski throw the ball 50 times in this contest. All of the offseason talk about Iowa's offensive improvements are now being ignored because the Hawkeyes' passing attack looks completely broken. Gronowski was invited to the NFL combine after his final season at South Dakota State, so the guy knows how to throw a football. But for whatever reason, his decision to postpone the NFL dreams for a year while joining the Hawkeyes does not appear to be a good one. Gronowski was 13-of-24 for 83 passing yards and an interception in last week's loss to Iowa State. Following this game with UMass, Iowa travels to Rutgers on a short week then hosts Indiana. This is Iowa's last chance to generate momentum in the passing game before hitting Big Ten play. Rushing the ball 39 times like they did against the Cyclones is not going to help this team get better. The Hawkeyes will throw and throw often and could go over this low total by themselves. 
Play the Over.