Tom's MLB Best Bet

Today’s Free Picks

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
CFB	(203) BYU at (204) Colorado	10:15pm EDT - Sep 27/2025

The PLAY: Total Over 49.5 (-110)

BYU vs. Colorado: Game Analysis

This matchup is a rematch of the 2024 Valero Alamo Bowl, where BYU convincingly defeated Colorado 36-14. Coming off an impressive cross country road trip to ECU last week, BYU defied expectations in a potential trap game, putting up 34 points in a dominant performance. Now, facing their second consecutive road game, the Cougars show no signs of slowing down.

BYU’s offense has remained dynamic despite the loss of quarterback Jake Retzlaff. Bear Bachmeier has seamlessly stepped into the starting role, leading a balanced attack that keeps defenses guessing. Colorado, on the other hand, has struggled to contain the run, which plays directly into BYU’s hands. Expect the Cougars to lean heavily on their ground game, controlling the clock and wearing down Colorado’s front.

Defensively, BYU is a force to be reckoned with. Their front seven ranks among the nation’s elite, sitting in the top 20 for sacks and boasting an impressive seven forced turnovers in just three games. Colorado’s talented but inconsistent offense will likely find it tough to gain traction. BYU’s defense should stifle the Buffaloes’ run game early, forcing quarterback K.J. Salter into predictable passing situations where the Cougars’ opportunistic secondary can capitalize with interceptions.

As the game progresses, BYU’s offense is poised to heat up in the second half, taking advantage of short fields created by defensive stops or turnovers. This matchup has blowout potential, especially in a conference game where BYU is unlikely to ease up. The Cougars’ relentless approach could see them cover the spread and potentially push the game total over single handedly.

Pick: BYU and the Over

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Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
CFB	(195) Oregon at (196) Penn State	7:30pm EDT - Sep 27/2025

The PLAY: Total Under 52.5 (-110)

Oregon vs. Penn State: A Big Ten Championship Rematch

In a highly anticipated rematch of the 2024 Big Ten Championship, where No. 2 Oregon outlasted No. 4 Penn State 45-37, the Ducks travel to Beaver Stadium for a primetime showdown under the iconic White Out conditions. With College GameDay amplifying the electric atmosphere, this clash promises intensity and drama.

Oregon’s Explosive Offense
Led by quarterback Dante Moore, who thrives in Oregon’s dynamic system, the Ducks boast a high-octane, balanced attack. Their offensive line is a strength, paving the way for a potent rushing game while protecting Moore for big plays. Oregon’s playmakers, armed with speed and depth, can stretch defenses vertically and horizontally, making them a constant threat to score.

Penn State’s Physical Approach
The Nittany Lions counter with a veteran, physical offense anchored by a dominant offensive line and a powerful run game led by the duo of Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton. While quarterback Drew Allar may lack flash, offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki’s creative play calling maximizes his efficiency with short, safe passes. Defensively, Jim Knowles’ technically sound unit is fast, aggressive, and quick to the ball, with a speedy secondary and relentless linebackers ready to disrupt Oregon’s rhythm.

Key Factors and Prediction
Beaver Stadium’s raucous White Out atmosphere could unsettle Oregon’s up tempo offense, potentially forcing Moore into mistakes against Penn State’s opportunistic defense. The Nittany Lions’ ground and pound strategy should control the clock, limiting Oregon’s possessions, while Allar’s conservative passing exploits gaps in the Ducks’ secondary. Despite Oregon’s offensive firepower, this game has the makings of a defensive slugfest, with Penn State’s physicality and home field advantage tipping the scales.

Pick: Under. Penn State’s run heavy approach and defensive discipline keep this game lower scoring than their last high octane encounter.

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Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
CFB	(197) Alabama at (198) Georgia	7:30pm EDT - Sep 27/2025

The PLAY: Total Under 53.5 (-108)

Alabama vs. Georgia Game Analysis

Alabama faces a tough challenge against Georgia in Sanford Stadium, where they haven’t played since 2018. Alabama’s offense lacks a consistent running game, forcing them to rely heavily on passing. This one dimensional approach could be problematic against Georgia’s stout run defense, which has been a cornerstone of their success. Meanwhile, Georgia boasts a powerful rushing attack led by Nate Frazier, capable of wearing down Alabama’s front seven over the course of the game. Both teams are coming off a bye week, providing extra preparation time that likely benefits their defenses. Alabama’s quarterback Ty Simpson has shown promise, but his inexperience on the road—especially in a hostile environment like Sanford Stadium—raises concerns. Georgia’s Gunner Stockton, on the other hand, should feel more comfortable at home after the Bulldogs’ road trip to Tennessee.
Recent performances highlight the contrast: Alabama struggled with early season road issues, potentially due to Week 1 jitters, while their offense has been explosive, scoring 73 against UL Monroe and 38 against Wisconsin in Week 3. However, this SEC showdown is likely to be a low scoring, physical grinder, as both defenses are well prepared and capable of controlling the game’s tempo.
Betting Angle: Georgia’s dominant run game and Alabama’s one dimensional offense tilt the scales toward a low scoring affair. The Bulldogs’ ability to control the ground game should limit Alabama’s possessions and keep the score down. Consider betting the first half under and the game under, as Georgia’s run heavy approach and Alabama’s defensive resilience should result in a tight, low scoring contest.

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Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
CFB	(165) Tennessee at (166) Mississippi State	4:15pm EDT - Sep 27/2025

The PLAY: Total Under 63.5 (-108)

Tennessee vs. Mississippi State: Game Analysis
Mississippi State isn’t the pushover you might expect. Their defense thrives on creating chaos, ranking high in forcing turnovers with an opportunistic mindset. Their secondary is particularly stingy, locking down passing lanes and punishing mistakes. Playing at home in Starkville only amplifies their edge.
Tennessee, meanwhile, brings a potent and balanced offense to the table. Quarterback Joey Agulair has settled in nicely, showing poise and precision. The Vols’ running back duo of Star Thomas and DeSean Bishop forms a dynamic ground attack. However, Tennessee’s defense showed cracks against Georgia, especially against the run, which Mississippi State is likely to exploit.
Expect the Bulldogs to lean heavily on their ground game, with Fluff Bothwell carrying the load and dual threat QB Blake Shapen adding a rushing dimension. This game shapes up as a gritty, low scoring affair—long, grinding drives stalled by turnovers. Mississippi State will aim to control the clock and limit Tennessee’s possessions, keeping the game tight.
Prediction: Take the under 63.5

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Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
CFB	(133) Indiana at (134) Iowa	3:30pm EDT - Sep 27/2025

The PLAY: Total Over 47.5 (-115)

Indiana vs. Iowa: Game Analysis and Over/Under
Prediction
Team Overviews:
Indiana (3-1, Over): The Hoosiers are averaging 54.8 points per game (PPG) while allowing just 5.8 points against (PA). They dominated their first Big Ten opponent, Illinois, scoring 63 points last week. Indiana excels against weaker teams, but their toughest test was Old Dominion in Week 1, where they scored 27 points.
Iowa (2-2, Over): The Hawkeyes average 33 PPG overall and 38 PPG in conference play. They performed well against Rutgers (W, 38-28), a team with a subpar defense. Iowa benefits from an extra day of preparation, having played last Friday.

Offensive Strengths:
Indiana: QB Fernando Mendoza is accurate and mobile, capable of escaping pressure though not a true dual-threat runner. The Hoosiers have playmakers who can generate big plays.

Iowa: QB Mark Gronowski, a veteran leader, directs an offense that’s uncharacteristically potent for a Kirk Ferentz-coached team. Iowa’s ability to score, especially in conference games, stands out, with weapons capable of explosive plays.

Defensive Considerations:
Both teams have competent defenses, but neither is elite. Indiana’s low PA (5.8) is inflated by weaker opponents, while Iowa’s defense allowed 28 points to Rutgers. The game’s total points line likely hinges on Iowa scoring at least 20 points, which seems achievable given their offensive output.
Historical Trends:
Seven of the last ten Indiana-Iowa matchups have gone over the total points line, supporting a high-scoring game.
Prediction:
With both teams boasting capable quarterbacks and playmakers, combined with historical trends favoring high scoring games, the over is the strong play here. Iowa’s ability to move the ball against weaker defenses and Indiana’s offensive firepower suggest this game could surpass the total.
Pick: Over

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