St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies Predictions, Picks and Odds
The No. 3 seed St. Louis Cardinals (93-68) won the NL Central and they will host the No. 6 seed Philadelphia Phillies (87-74) in the first round of the playoffs.
St. Louis has home-field advantage for all three of these games with is huge for this St. Louis since they went 48-27 at home this season compared to 40-40 on the road.
The Phillies also went 40-40 on the road this season and based on the series price odds, it is no surprise that St. Louis is a slight favorite to win the series.
Philadelphia won the regular season series 4-3 against St. Louis this season. Eric Pauly gives his National League Wild Card round preview between the Cardinals and Phillies.
St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview
Proj. Starters for STL: Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, Jordan Montgomery
The strength of this Cardinals team is their offense. In the regular season, the Cardinals were 27th in the MLB in strikeout percentage and they finished 5th in total RBIs, 8th in home runs, 3rd in total WAR, 5th in wRC+, and 5th in weighted on-base average. St. Louis went 24-11 against left-handed starters and 69-57 against right-handed starters.
The Cardinals’ pitching staff was good this season, but they leave a little to be desired. St. Louis’ pitching staff was 16th in the MLB in FIP, 17th in WAR, 16th in WHIP, and 14th in batting average on balls in play.
The Cardinals bullpen is 11th in the MLB in ERA and 14th in WHIP. They have three very capable starters in Wainwright, Mikolas, and Montgomery, but they lack a true ace.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
Proj. Starters for PHI: Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Kyle Gibson
Just like the Cardinals, the Phillies slugged their way to the postseason. In the regular season, the Phillies finished 10th in offensive WAR, 9th in wRC+, 6th in home runs, 8th in weighted on-base average, and 8th in batting average on balls in play. The Phillies finished 17th in the MLB in strikeout percentage this season.
While the Cardinals starting pitching has been middle of the pack this season, the Phillies boast much stronger starting pitching but a weak bullpen. As a team, the Phillies finished 7th in FIP, 4th in WAR, 14th in WHIP, but 25th in batting average on balls in play. The Phillies bullpen was 23rd in ERA and 23rd in WHIP.
St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies Series Prediction
The Phillies boast a much stronger starting pitching unit than the Cardinals on paper, Gibson, and Wheeler, two of the Phillies’ projected starters, have higher ERAs, slugging percentages against, batting averages against, and WHIPs on the road this year.
In contrast, Wainwright, Montgomery, and Mikolas all have performed better when starting at home this season. All three pitchers see drops in their ERAs, batting averages against, slugging percentages against, FIP, and WHIP at home this year.
Wainwright and Mikolas have both pitched against the Phillies twice this season and both of their starts were better when they were at home.
Wainwright allowed two runs on five hits in a complete game at home and Mikolas allowed one run on six hits in 7.1 innings of work. For the Phillies, Wheeler, Gibson, and Nola all pitched against the Cardinals this season. Wheeler and Gibson dominated St. Louis while Nola was hit hard in his outing in St. Louis.
This series should be a good one and there are stars littered throughout each team’s lineups. I think the Phillies have the better overall team, but asking the Phillies to win two games on the road is a tough task. Philly may have the better pitching staff, but the Cardinals’ bats may prove too strong for the Phillies.
Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals to win the series -135
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Meet the Author
Eric Pauly, @slimeaction on Twitter, graduated from Binghamton University with a degree in Finance. Eric is a die-hard Washington Commanders and New York Knicks fan and enjoys watching and writing about the NFL, NBA and MLB. His favorite gambling movements include hitting a +1000 future on Washington to win the NFC East in 2020 and predicting Jonathan Taylor’s breakout season with a +900 ticket for him to win the 2021 NFL rushing title. Aside from the sports betting industry, Eric also enjoys good eats, dynasty fantasy football leagues, daily fantasy sports and playing the guitar.
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